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Prospects of Collective Security in the Eastern Africa Region
ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLLEGE FORT LEAVENWORTH KS
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This thesis examines the prospects of effective collective security in the Eastern Africa Region. To accomplish this, the thesis analyzes the capacity of the current structure of the Eastern Africa Standby Force EASF to address regional security concerns. The thesis analyzes three case studies of war within the past 50 years, two of which occurred within the Eastern Africa Region, to determine the factors contributing to the success or failure of collective security. These case studies include the Ethiopia-Somalia War of 1978 the Ogaden War, the Ethiopia-Eritrea War of 1998, and the 1991 Persian Gulf War. The thesis also examines the role of the United Nations as an umbrella collective security body and when it has succeeded or failed in this role. The results show that success in collective security depends on the ability of the alliance to agree on the identity of the aggressor and to commit as a group to defeat it. The interests of a dominant power are critical to the success of collective security. The thesis concludes that collective security will only succeed when most of the players, and particularly the dominant power, are involved in the effort. The East Africa Region needs to find a means of obligating the regional dominant powers to the concept of collective security. Possible ways to ensure that the dominant regional players commit to the concept include institutionalization of the EASF and greater regional economic interdependence.
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE