Demographics-Based Analytical Framework for the Assessment of Security and Regime Stability: The Case of the Middle East
DEFENCE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CANADA OTTAWA (ONTARIO) CENTRE FOR OPERATIONAL RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS
Pagination or Media Count:
Defence transformation and force levels are ultimately connected with assessments of the global future security situation. Frameworks and models that could help NATO define the future threats facilitate the delivery of tomorrow s capabilities. The paper outlines a conceptual framework for assessing the risks of civil conflict and regime instability as a result of significant demographic growth. As a case study it discusses the demographic situation of one of the most volatile regions in the world the Middle East. The proposed framework is based on a correlation between several demographic stress factors, such as the ratio between young workers to all working-age adults, GDP per capita and unemployment rates. The presence of ethnic or sectarian tensions is also considered. The probability of demographic growth to result in regime changes or democratic reforms is assessed based on a correlation between the strength of the youth cohort and the regimes ability to retain power.
- Government and Political Science
- Sociology and Law