Methodology to Model and Understand the Complexities of Social, Economic,and Governance Interactions for Regional Assessment in Kenya
Technical rept. Aug 2011-Jul 2012
MILITARY ACADEMY WEST POINT NY CENTER FOR NATION RECONSTRUCTION AND CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT
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This research explores the use of complex systems techniques to understand, model, and quantify how local events in the areas of security, governance, and economic development can have far-reaching regional impacts in developing countries. Several systems diagramming and system dynamics techniques were explored to conduct a thorough system analysis and ultimately determine what inputs cause the largest increase in key state variables representing a countrys capacity and status. The resulting model will be used by AFRICOM analysts to determine the effect of local events across a wide range of variables in order to determine where the largest impact can be made to the improvement of a countrys economic, social, and security status, and thereby prioritize investment and other activities in the area of interest.
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