Medical Countermeasure Models. Volume 4. Francisella tularensis
GRYPHON SCIENTIFIC LLC TAKOMA PARK MD
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The F. tularensis medical countermeasure model presented here allows users to explore how medical countermeasures MCM can impact the course of the disease, mortality, and loss of work. The model is designed to allow users to input information about exposure and countermeasures, run a simulation and display outputs. The parameters describing disease outcomes for patients with no MCM that underlie the model are informed by parameters established by Curling et al, while the parameters describing the efficacy of MCM were established specifically for this project using publicly available data from human and animal studies. This stochastic model allows users to input data about each exposed individual including the number of bacteria inhaled, vaccination status, timing and duration of antibiotic post-exposure prophylaxis, and treatment status and timing. After the model is run, the output tab displays the outcome for each individual. The graph tab provides a summary of the results, including the percent of individuals that die, recover, or never develop illness, as well as the time distributions of symptom onset and death. The sample results included in this report demonstrate how MCM can impact the number of casualties, the timing of the disease, and the number of days of work lost. Users of the model can explore additional scenarios by modifying the dose and MCM inputs.
- Medicine and Medical Research