Ensemble Data Assimilation and Predictability of Tropical Cyclones
PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV STATE COLLEGE DEPT OF METEOROLOGY
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The ultimate goal is to improve tropical cyclone track and intensity prediction through further development of ensemble-based data assimilation at the regional scale. More specifically, the objective is to make better use of in-situ and remotely-sensed observations in cloud-resolving models. In collaboration with scientists at the Naval Research Lab NRL, we would like to develop an ensemble-based data assimilation system for the Coupled OceanAtmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System COAMPS that is capable of assimilating remotely sensed data, as well as observations from conventional meteorological networks, to improve tropical cyclone prediction. This work will build upon a protype COAMPS-based ensemble Kalman filter COAMPS-EnKF that has been recently developed at NRL following the success of the ensemble data assimilation system developed at the Pennsylvania State University PSU for the Weather Research and Forecasting WRF model.