Toward Better Intraseasonal and Seasonal Prediction: Verification and Evaluation of the NOGAPS Model Forecasts
NAVAL RESEARCH LAB MONTEREY CA MARINE METEOROLOGY DIV
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The long-term goals of this project are to understand the key physical processes for realistic simulation and skillful prediction of the MJO and to improve the intraseasonal to seasonal prediction skills of the NAVGEM model. Intraseasonal and seasonal prediction provides important information for decision-making and resource management, and has received increased attention in recent years. Despite substantial progress in numerical modeling in the past few decades, skillful seasonal prediction remains a challenge for many models. Verification and evaluation of model forecasts can offer users necessary information on the model predictive skills and uncertainties, and provide model development teams with useful information on model improvements.