Advanced Satellite-Derived Wind Observations, Assimilation, and Targeting Strategies during TCS-08 for Developing Improved Operational Analysis and Prediction of Western Pacific Tropical Cyclones
NAVAL RESEARCH LAB MONTEREY CA
Pagination or Media Count:
Forecasts of tropical cyclone TC formation and intensity change in the north-western Pacific basin are often lacking in skill, in part due to the paucity of conventional oceanic observations that are assimilated into the operational models. This lack of observations has also constrained our understanding of how TC formation is governed by environmental processes. Recently, remotely-sensed observations from satellites have become a routine and important input to the global data assimilation systems. These data can provide critical environmental data for the testing of hypotheses of TC formation and development, and improving our understanding of how environmental influences on TC structure evolve up to landfall or extratropical transition. In particular, winds derived from geostationary satellites have been shown to be an important component of the observing system in reducing TC model track forecasts. However, in regards to TC formation, intensity change, and extratropical transition, it is clear that a dedicated research effort is needed to optimize the satellite data processing strategies, assimilation, and applications to better understand the behavior of the near-storm environmental flow fields during these evolutionary TC stages. To our knowledge, this project represents the first time anyone has tried to evaluate the impact of targeted satellite data on TC forecasts using an automated dynamic targeted observing strategy. TCS-08 afforded us the opportunity to employ specially-processed satellite data along with observations collected in situ by the NAVY P- 3, and other platforms, to investigate these objectives as they apply in the western north Pacific TC basin.