Modeling Conflict between China and the United States
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEFENSE ANALYSIS DEPT
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As the United States exits Iraq and Afghanistan, it must begin the long process of preparing for future challenges. There is considerable pressure on policy makers within the Congress and the Department of Defense DoD to make strategy and force structure decisions with costs in mind. A key question is what will future conflict look like and how many resources should be committed to large conventional forces. To effectively analyze the desired size and characteristics of tomorrows military, we must take a hard look at feasible, real-world contingencies, one of which could be conflict with China. This thesis examines the strengths and weaknesses of the United States and Chinas military forces, and uses Game Theory to model conflict between the two countries using the Correlates of War data to measure national power. The central question that drives this study is as follows Can the United States win a conventional war against China, and, if not, are there offensive irregular warfare IW activities that can deter China while being advantageous to the United States Modeling can provide input to policy makers by providing insight into three questions 1 How would the United States fare in a conventional war with China 2 Would the United States fare better using IW against China and 3 Is there a combination of conventional force, IW, and diplomacy that can achieve U.S. strategic objectives The models in this study are meant to provide mathematical insights into whether IW is an essential element of U.S. national strategy.
- Government and Political Science
- Operations Research
- Military Forces and Organizations
- Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics