Intraseasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Events: Transition to Operations
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF METEOROLOGY
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The long-term goal of this project is to understand the forecastability of tropical cyclone events, which are defined to be entire tracks from formation to ending, on timescales from 5-30 days and thereby develop a probabilistic forecast technique to support the U. S. Navy and other Department of Defense DOD activities against the threat of tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclones are the primary weather-related threat to DOD tactical and strategic activities, and the U. S. Navy is particularly vulnerable. Developing a forecast capability on 5-30 day timescales will allow tropical cyclone event guidance to DOD activities not only to protect people and resources against the tropical cyclone threat, but also allow them to safely carry out strategic activities with confidence that there will be no significant tropical cyclones in a specific area for a stated time ranging up to 30 days.