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Capturing the Stratosphere's Influence on Seasonal and Intraseasonal Predictability in a State-of-the-Art Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM)

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Annual rept.

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Recent research has revealed that the stratosphere influences medium- and long-range weather prediction, sometimes strongly NAS 2010. The North Atlantic Oscillation NAO one of the most prominent modes of intraseasonal tropospheric variability extending from the subtropical Atlantic to the Arctic Hurrell et al. 2003 has been recognized only within the past decade as one regional manifestation of a larger hemispheric phenomenon, known synonymously as the Arctic Oscillation AO or Northern Annular Mode NAM. The NAM extends continuously into the stratosphere and mesosphere, and an analogous deep Southern Annular Mode SAM occurs in the southern hemisphere. NAMSAM anomalies often appear first in the upper stratosphere or mesosphere, then descend gradually over a period of weeks, sometimes reaching the surface where they change weather patterns throughout the polar region Baldwin and Dunkerton 2001 Coy et al. 2011. Descending stratospheric NAMSAM anomalies also play a pivotal role in controlling the response of high-latitude weather to the El-Ni oSouthern Oscillation in the tropics Bell et al. 2009 Ineson and Scaife 2009, while the tropical stratosphere and mesosphere may also impact tropical seasonal prediction through an improved Madden-Julian Oscillation Weare et al. 2012. These examples, and others like them, point to the important role that the overlying stratosphere-mesosphere system can play in presaging and regulating large-scale global surface weather changes over periods of weeks to months e.g., Baldwin et al. 2003, prompting recent reports from the World Climate Research Programme WCRP 2008 and the National Academy of Sciences NAS 2010 that note quote the stratosphere s potential to improve seasonal forecasts is largely untapped. Thus the long-term goals of this project are to tap the potential of an improved stratosphere and mesosphere for seasonal prediction by developing and testing new stratospheric and mesospheric modelin

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  • Atmospheric Physics
  • Meteorology

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