Characterization of Mesoscale Predictability
WASHINGTON UNIV SEATTLE DEPT OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
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One of the major efforts in the atmospheric sciences has been to develop and implement high-resolution forecast models and to improve their parameterization of unresolved physical processes boundary-layer transport, cloud microphysics . For the last three decades, the relatively pessimistic predictions of Lorenz 1969 about the predictability of small-scale i.e., mesoscale atmospheric features have been largely ignored as routine weather forecasts were conducted at increasingly fine scale. Recent research suggests there are nevertheless, significant limitations to the predictability of mesoscale atmospheric circulations. Our goal is to develop an understanding of the predictability of such circulations in forecasts generated by state-of-the-art high-resolution mesoscale models.