Using NOGAPS Singular Vectors to Diagnose Large-scale Influences on Tropical Cyclogenesis
NAVAL RESEARCH LAB MONTEREY CA
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The overarching goal is to improve our understanding of synoptic-scale influences on tropical cyclone TC formation and motion in the western North Pacific Ocean, in the context of error growth in forecast models. Benefits to the Navy would include improved forecast skill of the structure and track of developing and recurving TCs. The first objective is to connect Singular Vector SV and ensemble perturbation growth to synoptic-scale dynamical influences on tropical cyclone formation and structure change. The second objective is to extend these investigations towards vortex initialization and analysis of tropical cyclone structure in high-resolution models. The goal is to extend these methodologies into the Navy s COAMPS-TC framework.