Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Data Assimilation
TEXAS A AND M UNIV COLLEGE STATION DEPT OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
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The ultimate goal of this project is to demonstrate that in the presence of tropical cyclones TCs, a multi-scale approach for data assimilation can significantly enhance the analyses and the ensuing forecasts. Our multiscale approach is based on coupling a lower resolution global data assimilation system and a higher resolution limited area data assimilation system in a TC basin. The coupled approach has the potential to lead to a better utilization of the available atmospheric observations and computer resources. Ours is the first attempt to use an ensemble-based, coupled global-limited-area data assimilation system to improve the analyses and the forecasts of TCs and their effects on the larger scale atmospheric processes. In fact, to the best of our knowledge, ours has been the only research group working on a data assimilation system that generates both global and limited area analyses. Our key scientific objective is to explore the potentials and the limitations of the coupled global-limited-area data assimilation approach. This research objective is particularly relevant for the numerical weather forecasting applications of the Navy, as the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center FNMOC prepares both a global forecast and a larger number of limited area forecasts more than 60 than any other forecast center in the world.