Sources of Error and the Statistical Formulation of Ms | mb Seismic Event Screening Analysis for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT)
LOS ALAMOS NATIONAL LAB NM
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The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty CTBT, a global ban on nuclear explosions, is currently pre-entry into force. Under the CTBT, a monitoring system of seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasonic and radionuclide sensors operates and data from this system is analyzed by the International Data Centre IDC. The IDC provides CTBT signatories basic seismic event parameters and a screening analysis indicating whether an event exhibits explosion characteristics for example, shallow depth. An important component of the screening analysis is a statistical test of the the null hypothesis H0 Explosion Characteristics using empirical measurements of seismic energy magnitudes. Relative to mb, earthquakes generally have a larger Ms magnitude than explosions. This paper proposes a hypothesis test screening analysis using Ms and mb that expressly accounts for physical correction model inadequacy in the standard error of the test statistic. With this hypothesis test formulation, the 2009 Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea DPRK announced nuclear weapon test fails to reject the null hypothesis H0 Explosion Characteristics.