Modelling a Simulation-Based Decision Support System for Effects-Based Planning
SWEDISH DEFENCE RESEARCH AGENCY STOCKHOLM
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Models constitute an important component in decision support functions of C4I systems. They improve the military commanders abilities to create situation awareness, analyse threats and make proper decisions. Computerized models can be exploited for the purpose of simulation, which enables us to cover a much wider range of options and go deeper in impact assessments. In this paper we describe decision support and simulation techniques to facilitate Effects-Based Planning EBP. In our approach, by using a decision support tool, a decision maker is able to test a number of feasible plans against possible courses of events and decide which of those plans is capable of achieving the desired military end-state. The purpose is to evaluate plans and understand their consequences through simulating the events and producing outcomes which result from making alternative decisions. Plans are described in the Effects-Based Approach to Operations EBAO concept as a set of effects and activities that together will lead to a desired military end-state. For each activity we may have several different alternatives. Together they make up all alternative plans, as an activity tree that may be simulated. The simulation of plans is designed to deliver results, indicating the so far best sequence, at each point of time. Hence, we have chosen to use the A-search algorithm for traversing through the activity tree and choosing the next activity to be simulated. This method helps us to decide at any point of time which sequence of activities has the best result so far, i.e., has resulted in a system state that is closest to our end-state. The paper also includes a description of our model, different objects, their relations, and the structure of our simulation kernel. The system is still under development hence there are no experimental results obtained so far.
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