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Seasons of Change: Lessons from the Arab Spring
ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLL FORT LEAVENWORTH KS SCHOOL OF ADVANCED MILITARY STUDIES
Pagination or Media Count:
The Arab Spring is an event that has radically shifted the geopolitical landscape in one of the most volatile regions of the world. Many experts and policy makers were caught off guard by the speed and organizational ability of the disparate citizens who orchestrated and executed these revolutions. As the dust settles and the United States begins to reassess the new environment in the Middle East, this monograph asserts that certain indicators can assist planners in predicting both the nature of potential revolutions and the likelihood of stability following revolutions in North Africa and the Middle East. The purpose of the monograph is to analyze which variables played a significant role in the Arab Spring revolutions. The monograph hypothesizes that the civil-military relationship in the affected countries was the primary variable. The monograph uses the case study method to analyze the civil-military relationship, economic environment, and level of political pluralism that existed in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya before the revolutions. The author concludes that the consistent indicator for a less violent revolution and the attainment of revolutionary goals was a universally accepted civil-military relationship. The findings of this research support the hypothesis that civil-military relationships had a primary impact on the outcomes of these revolutions. Of the three countries analyzed, Tunisia, and to a lesser degree Egypt, demonstrated the characteristics of good civil-military relations, while Libya exhibited none of them.
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE