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Predicting Pilot Retention
Master's graduate research project May 2011-15 Jun 2012
AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH GRADUATE SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT
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The research problem is to determine if it is possible to predict future pilot retention based on factors internal and external to the Air Force to determine if there is a potential future shortage. Specifically, this research sought to answer three research questions about how future pilot inventories are forecast, determining if there are factors that may predict retention habits, and finally if a model can be formulated using those factors that would help predict pilot retention. This study will be focused towards the Air Staff and OSD to illustrate potential manning shortfalls as well as hopefully identifying factors that may alleviate those risks. This study focused solely on pilots and only look ten years out for requirements since the current ADSC for initial pilot training is ten years. Research indicated that the USAF does not use external factors that have proven to be significant in predicting pilot retention. This research created a formula for predicting pilot retention that can be used by senior policy members to better forecast retention behavior in order to shape force management more effectively.
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE