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The Geopolitical Destiny of East Asia
ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLL FORT LEAVENWORTH KS
Pagination or Media Count:
The art and science of geopolitics was developed to explain history and international relations by identifying and incorporating the roles of geography and climate in the complex adaptive organic system that is human civilization. The application of the geopolitical framework of analysis to East Asian history confirms the roles of geography and climate in influencing human decisions in that region. This study identified several broad geopolitical trends for the sub-regions of East Asia by studying their history and the continuing effects that geography and climate have had on them. East Asia is a collection of 17 distinct sub-regions, each with a distinct identity, language, and tradition. The challenge for China is to keep its 13 sub-regions together as a single nation despite the growing crises regarding disparities of wealth and chronic water and energy shortages. Climate trends point to a worsening of the water shortage problem for China as well as South Asia that could result in sub-regional migration that will push all the nations of Asia to their limit in the next 100 years. Global warming will bring both East Siberia and the Arctic Ocean into the forefront of global competition. Facing a resurgent Russia and a reinvigorated North America, East Asia will enter a period of playing a peripheral role in international politics brought on by systemic failures resulting from climate change and geography.
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE