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Fergana as FATA? A Post-2014 Strategy for Central Asia
Strategy Research Project
ARMY WAR COLL CARLISLE BARRACKS PA
Pagination or Media Count:
The Central Asian States CAS region has played a critical supporting role in OPERATION ENDURING FREEDOM OEF since 2001. However, current U.S. military strategy addresses the region only in the context of its operational importance relative to OEF. Failure to view the CAS region through a broader, long-term strategic lens jeopardizes success in post-withdrawal Afghanistan, is detrimental to regional security and stability, and increases the likelihood that the U.S. will be drawn back on less than desirable terms. The CAS region is strategically significant in its own right and critical to sustaining success in post-withdrawal Afghanistan. The Fergana Valley subregion, shared by the Kyrgyz Republic, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, is the strategic center of gravity of Central Asia. This paper analyzes the most likely effects of the 2014 U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan on the Fergana Valley and their impact on U.S. interests, presents and evaluates U.S. policy options, and recommends a post-2014 regional strategy.
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE