Accession Number:

ADA561420

Title:

Validation of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center's Solar Flare Forecasting Look-Up Tables and Forecaster Issued Probabilities (Preprint)

Descriptive Note:

Interim rept. 1 Apr 2007-1 Dec 2011

Corporate Author:

AIR FORCE RESEARCH LAB KIRTLAND AFB NM SPACE VEHICLES DIRECTORATE

Personal Author(s):

• Crown, Misty D.

Report Date:

2012-03-30

Pagination or Media Count:

18.0

Abstract:

This paper provides an assessment of the operational solar flare look-up table currently in use at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center SWPC during solar cycle 23 May 1996 December 2008. To assess the value of human interaction, a validation of subjective flare probability forecasts was conducted and compared to the results obtained from the look-up tables. Probabilistic flare forecasts were evaluated using the Brier Skill Score, then discretized and entered into contingency tables from which a variety of verification measures were calculated. These scores and statistics will be used as the basis for future evaluation of models to be presented to the operational community.

Descriptors:

• *SOLAR FLARES
• *VALIDATION
• *WEATHER FORECASTING
• COMMUNITIES
• EMERGENCIES
• INTERACTIONS
• MODELS
• OCEANS
• PROBABILITY
• SOLAR CYCLE
• SPACE ENVIRONMENTS
• STATISTICS
• TABLES(DATA)
• VERIFICATION

Subject Categories:

• Astrophysics
• Meteorology

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE