Forecasting Effects of Influence Operations: A Generative Social Science Methodology
AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH GRADUATE SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT
Pagination or Media Count:
Simulation enables analysis of social systems that would be difficult or unethical to experiment upon directly. Agent-based models have been used successfully in the field of generative social science to discover parsimonious sets of factors that generate social behavior. This methodology provides an avenue to explore the spread of anti-government sentiment in populations and to compare the effects of potential Military Information Support Operations MISO actions. This research develops an agent-based model to investigate factors that affect the growth of rebel uprisings in a notional population. It adds to the civil violence model developed by Epstein 2006 by enabling communication between agents in the manner of a genetic algorithm and friendships based on shared beliefs. A designed experiment is performed. Additionally, two counter-propaganda strategies are compared and explored. Analysis identifies factors that have effects that can explain some real-world observations, and provides a methodology for MISO operators to compare the effectiveness of potential actions.
- Information Science
- Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics