Accession Number:

ADA558455

Title:

Agent Based Simulation Output Analysis

Descriptive Note:

Conference paper

Corporate Author:

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

2011-12-01

Pagination or Media Count:

10.0

Abstract:

In most realistic simulations there are multiple outputs of interest and the overall performance of the system can only be estimated in terms of these multiple outputs. We propose a method that uses agent-based modeling to determine a truncation point to remove significant initialization bias. Mapping the output of multiple replications into agent paths that traverse the sample space helps determine when a near steady state has been reached. By viewing these paths in reversed time, qualitative and quantitative methods can be used to determine when the multivariate output is leaving its near-steady state regime as the paths coalesce back towards their common initialization state. The methodology is more efficient and general than typical approaches for finding a truncation point for scalar outputs of individual replicates. Artificial bootstrap-like re-sampling of simulation runs is proposed for expensive simulations to estimate system performance sensitivity.

Subject Categories:

  • Computer Programming and Software

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE