Evaluating the Record of the Coalition Provisional Authority's Macroeconomic Reforms in Iraq
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS
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This thesis measured three aspects of the Coalition Provisional Authoritys macroeconomic reforms for transitioning Postwar Iraq 1 the degree of Central Bank independence, 2 the success of the currency exchange, and 3 whether the program of shock therapy weakened macroeconomic reforms. The premise behind implementing liberal economic reforms in Iraq was that creating a market-oriented economy would increase internal stability and would integrate Iraq into the global economy. Moreover, an integrated Iraqi government would be less likely to engage in hostile action against its own population or its neighbors. This thesis scored the actual degree of Central Bank independence at .64, according to the most widely accepted measure established by Cukierman, Webb, and Neyapti. The thesis also proved the Central Banks effectiveness at targeting inflation, which is another indicator of Central Bank independence. The CPAs program of dinar consolidation unified Iraqs dual monetary system and helped erase Saddams legacy of economic incompetence. The goal of shock therapy was to avoid the obstruction and interference that might have accompanied a protracted step-by-step approach. Rather than being rejected by a popular backlash or overturned by the Iraqi government, the CPAs macroeconomic reforms remain vital. Although these reforms did not resolve all of the structural hurdles in the economy, this research finds that the CPAs neoliberal economic policies have created the necessary groundwork for the further development of independent macroeconomic institutions.
- Economics and Cost Analysis
- Government and Political Science