The Importance of Different Frequency Bands in Predicting Subcutaneous Glucose Concentration in Type 1 Diabetic Patients
ARMY MEDICAL RESEARCH AND MATERIEL COMMAND FORT DETRICK MD TELEMEDICINE AND ADVANCED TECH RESEARCH CENTER
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We investigated the relative importance and predictive power of different frequency bands of subcutaneous glucose signals for the short-term 0-50 min forecasting of glucose concentrations in type 1 diabetic patients with datadriven autoregressive AR models. The study data consisted of minute-by-minute glucose signals collected from nine deidentified patients over a five-day period using continuous glucose monitoring devices. AR models were developed using single and pairwise combinations of frequency bands of the glucose signal and compared with a reference model including all bands. The results suggest that for open-loop applications, there is no need to explicitly represent exogenous inputs, such as meals and insulin intake, in AR models models based on a single-frequency band with periods between 60-120 min or 150-500 min, yield good predictive power error 3 mgdL for prediction horizons of up to 25 min models based on pairs of bands produce predictions that are indistinguishable from those of the reference model as long as the 60-120 min period band is included and AR models can be developed on signals of short length 300 min, i.e. ignoring long circadian rhythms, without any detriment in prediction accuracy. Together, these findings provide insights into efficient development of more effective and parsimonious data-driven models for short-term prediction of glucose concentrations in diabetic patients.