Initialization, Prediction and Diagnosis of the Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones using the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator, ACCESS
NAVAL RESEARCH LAB MONTEREY CA
Pagination or Media Count:
The main long and short term objectives are a To develop and apply ACCESS-based numerical systems to perform nested, high-resolution data assimilation, initialization and forecast experiments for rapid and slow intensification events. b To use the outcomes from a to investigate assimilation, prediction and dynamics of environmental influences and internal structure change during rapid intensification events. c To explore advanced hybrid ensemble-4DVAR data assimilation techniques to better initialize and validate TC structures including the intense inner core and storm asymmetries consistent with the large scale environment LSE of TCs. d To use sensitivity experiments and ensemble techniques to i understand the variability in simulations of RI, and ii estimate the highly anisotropic, flow dependent error covariances required for effective TC data assimilation. e To use idealised, synthetic TC structures in initial conditions, to investigate the sensitivity of RI prediction to vortex structure. f To investigate the use of additional data sources and new assimilation techniques for initialization of intense TC vortices without the use of a synthetic vortex.