Conceiving an Army for the 21st Century
DEFENCE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CANADA OTTAWA (ONTARIO) CENTRE FOR OPERATIONAL RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS
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If military planners are to be more systematic and rigorous in future planning, utility may be found in futures methodology. Indeed, careful application of such methods can allow for investigation of the future and its implications in a manner that is both more systematic and rigorous than is likely to occur otherwise . This paper details two such methods and their application to Army 2040 -- a project being conducted by the Directorate Land Concepts and Designs DLCD aimed at investigating how the Canadas Army must develop to maintain its effectiveness in the 2040 timeframe. Following a brief overview of the capability development process which the Army employs to study the future, the paper describes futuring or foresight methodology, and its application in analysing seven key components of the future strategic environment. It then identifies 12 converging trends which emerged from the analysis and describes the process by which the trends identified and the second and third order effects they generate may be used to produce a number of alternative futures which the Army and in turn the Canadian Forces CF must consider in order to maintain their relevance in the 2040 timeframe. Anelaboration of one such alternate framework - based on those trends ranked as particularly high in terms of the potential impacts they may produce as well as the degree of uncertainty that surrounds them i.e. energy and resource scarcity -- concludes the paper.
- Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics