The Inevitable War?
ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLL FORT LEAVENWORTH KS SCHOOL OF ADVANCED MILITARY STUDIES
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China and the United States have been competitors on a global scale since Deng Xiaoping changed Chinas trading policies in 1976. The policies resulted in increased tensions between the two nations over time. This monograph uses Commercial Liberalism and Power Transition Theory to describe conditions in two historical case studies that led to peace or war. These lessons are applied to todays relationship between China and the United States in order to extrapolate the trends that may lead to war between them. The United States and Britain 1865-1945 dyad show the peaceful transition between a great power and a dominant power. The United States and Japan 1853-1941 dyad show the conditions when two great powers go to war. Both case studies involve a significant trading relationship between the dyads. The current conditions with China and the United States show that the relationship between the two nations will continue to be peaceful because of the decrease in trade share between them. Additionally, China is satisfied because they continue to derive acceptable benefits from the global order. A significant, short-term growth in their military power projection systems would be an indicator they are not satisfied with the global order.
- Government and Political Science
- Military Forces and Organizations