Ready for Takeoff: China's Advancing Aerospace Industry
RAND CORP ARLINGTON VA NATIONAL SECURITY RESEARCH DIV
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Chinas aerospace industry has advanced at an impressive rate over the past decade. While some of this progress can be attributed to rapidly growing governmental support for Chinas aerospace sector, Chinas aerospace capabilities have also benefited from the increasing participation of its aerospace industry in the global commercial aerospace market and the supply chains of the worlds leading aerospace firms. This monograph assesses Chinas aerospace capabilities and the extent to which Chinas participation in commercial aerospace markets and supply chains is contributing to the improvement of those capabilities. Specific areas assessed include Chinas commercial aviation manufacturing capabilities, its commercial and military capabilities in space, efforts of the Chinese government to encourage foreign participation in the development of Chinas aerospace industry, transfers of foreign aerospace technology to China, the extent to which U.S. and other foreign aerospace firms are dependent on supplies from China, and the implications of all of these issues for U.S. security interests. Chinese airlines, which today operate about 1,400 large commercial aircraft and regional jets, are projected to purchase roughly 4,000 new jetliners over the next 20 years. Actual purchases could be more or less than this projection, depending on whether Chinas economy grows at the expected rate and on the availability of alternative forms of transportation such as high-speed rail. Chinese air freight companies will likely purchase another 100 to 200 cargo aircraft, but many of them may be converted aging passenger planes. In September 2009, there were about 200 civil helicopters in China, and approximately 1,200 additional civil helicopters are expected to be purchased by 2018.
- Economics and Cost Analysis
- Government and Political Science