Tropical Cyclone Structure Modification and Motion
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF METEOROLOGY
Pagination or Media Count:
To improve tropical cyclone track and intensity prediction through a research program combining high resolution modeling and detailed observations to investigate physical processes by which the motion and structure of a tropical cyclone is modified. The objective of this project is to investigate the physical processes that occur as a tropical cyclone interacts with the environment such that motion and structure changes occur. Specific interactions being studied are with mesoscale convective systems MCS that have been hypothesized to impact the development, motion, and structure of tropical cyclones, with baroclinic environments in the tropics and in the midlatitudes during extratropical transition, and with topography as a tropical storm makes landfall. As a storm makes landfall, significant asymmetries in the low-level wind structure are expected to develop with marked impact on precipitation and wind damage patterns. During extratropical transition, radical changes to the storm structure occur as the warm core is eroded by intruding cold, dry air from the midlatitudes. Re-intensification to a strong midlatitude system is possible, and to further complicate matters, passage over the Japan islands can occur during this transitioning period. In cases where forecast models did poorly in predicting the motion and re-intensification of the storm during these transitional periods, better understanding of these processes should improve motion and intensity forecasts.