A Statistical Approach to the Development of Progress Plans Utilizing Bayesian Methods and Expert Judgment
DEFENSE ACQUISITION UNIV FT BELVOIR VA
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The development of progress plans for each identified technical performance parameter TPP is a critical element of technical performance measurement. The measured values of TPPs are referred to as technical performance measures TPMs. These terms are used interchangeably however, TPMs more directly reflect how technical progress and technical risk are measured and evaluated. Progress plans, or planned performance profiles, are crucial to effective risk assessment however, methods for developing these plans are subjective in nature, have no statistical basis or criteria as a rule, and are not sufficiently addressed in literature. The methodology proposed herein for progress plan development will involve the elicitation of expert judgments to formulate probability distributions that reflect the expected valuesestimates used to establish progress plans.
- Personnel Management and Labor Relations
- Statistics and Probability