Quantifying Uncertainty Through Global and Mesoscale Ensembles
NAVAL RESEARCH LAB MONTEREY CA
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The long-term goal of this project is to develop robust global and mesoscale ensemble analysis and forecast systems that are able to provide probabilistic forecast guidance in an operational environment. Although most operational centers rely solely on single deterministic forecasts from numerical weather prediction models, recent advances in probabilistic prediction, or ensemble forecasting, have made this a very powerful tool for providing more complete input on environmental conditions, including a measure of the forecast confidence. Since the atmosphere is inherently chaotic, the model predictions of most, if not all phenomena will always be sensitive to the model initial conditions and physical parameterizations.
- Operations Research