Evolution of Tropical Cyclone Characteristics and Forecast Assessment
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF METEOROLOGY
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A long-term goal is to understand how variabilities in the environment and internal tropical cyclone structure influence tropical cyclone track and intensity characteristics and how these influence differ between developing, mature, and decaying tropical cyclones. During the initial stages of tropical cyclone development, structure and track characteristics can exhibit large variabilities that pose difficult forecast situations. Because decaying tropical cyclones often transition to fast-moving and rapidly-developing extratropical cyclones that may contain gale- or storm-force winds, special attention is given to improving understanding and prediction of the extratropical transition phase of a decaying tropical cyclone. Therefore, a tropical cyclone throughout its life cycle has the potential for impacting many fleet components. As increased understanding leads to improved forecasts of tropical cyclone motion and structure characteristics, a long-term goal of this project is to assess the utility of the tropical cyclone forecast products to shore- and sea-based assets.