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An Analysis of Counterinsurgency Campaigns Using Lanchestrian Based Marketing Differential Equations
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
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We develop a campaign model for counterinsurgency that is derived from the Lanchester-inspired Vidale-Wolfe marketing model utilized in the analysis of a consumer populations dynamics. We adapt this approach for a situation in which the output of our differential equation model is not attrition but the percentage of a given population that supports a particular side in the insurgency. The model is descriptive, providing a structured framework to analyze complex inputs in a simple, straightforward and easily understood framework. Parametric observations reveal that a fledgling insurgency will grow to be a major concern if left unaddressed by the government. Data from Colombias insurgency demonstrates that the model is well suited to reflect the movement of a populations support away from the government and toward an insurgency.
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE