Accession Number:

ADA531489

Title:

An Analysis of Counterinsurgency Campaigns Using Lanchestrian Based Marketing Differential Equations

Descriptive Note:

Master' thesis

Corporate Author:

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s):

• Blasy, Christian W.

Report Date:

2010-09-01

Pagination or Media Count:

67.0

Abstract:

We develop a campaign model for counterinsurgency that is derived from the Lanchester-inspired Vidale-Wolfe marketing model utilized in the analysis of a consumer populations dynamics. We adapt this approach for a situation in which the output of our differential equation model is not attrition but the percentage of a given population that supports a particular side in the insurgency. The model is descriptive, providing a structured framework to analyze complex inputs in a simple, straightforward and easily understood framework. Parametric observations reveal that a fledgling insurgency will grow to be a major concern if left unaddressed by the government. Data from Colombias insurgency demonstrates that the model is well suited to reflect the movement of a populations support away from the government and toward an insurgency.

Descriptors:

• *COUNTERINSURGENCY
• *DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS
• INSURGENCY
• MARKETING
• PARAMETRIC ANALYSIS
• THESES

Subject Categories:

• Theoretical Mathematics
• Unconventional Warfare

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE