Motion Prediction for Watercraft Operations and Recovery
VIRGINIA POLYTECHNIC INST AND STATE UNIV BLACKSBURG DEPT OF AEROSPACE AND OCEAN ENGINEERING
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Simple probabilistic approach Input roll, pitch, roll velocity, and pitch velocity past time history or whatever relevant variables characterize the system and nondimensionalize with each variables standard deviation. Search non-dimensional past time history for n neighbours nearest to the point of interest point of interest being the time from which we wish to approximate forward, and n for this work was selected as 10. Note the actual dimensional roll, pitch, roll velocity and pitch velocity trajectories for the duration of interest immediately following each of the 10 nearest neighbours. Generate 1, 2, and 3 standard deviation 1, 2, 3 envelope curves of predicted motions based upon the mean value 1, 2, 3 at each time step from the neighbour time histories.