Measuring Uncertainty and Conservatism in Simplified Blast Models
KARAGOZIAN AND CASE GLENDALE CA
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This paper compares blast predictions both reflected and incident loads, both for pressure and impulse, and both positive and negative phases from a number of popular simplified models, including BlastX, ConWep, SHOCK, to a wide range of test data spanning three decades and comprising a total of nearly 300 individual measurements. All of these were taken at low heights above the ground, some on small cubicles and others on larger buildings. The comparison is restricted to a scaled range of 3-100 ftlb, a regime where variations in the details of the test arrangement should be more or less irrelevant. The results provide quantitative assessment of the inherent uncertainty in any blast prediction tool, even for these relatively simple geometric conditions. Relative comparison between models and test data support the determination of biases and trends within each of the models. Using these results, it is possible to quantify the bias and uncertainty in the models for each of the load metrics, and also to compare uncertainties between the various metrics.
- Operations Research
- Structural Engineering and Building Technology