Accession Number:

ADA526892

Title:

Aha Huliko'a Workshop Series

Descriptive Note:

Corporate Author:

HAWAII UNIV HONOLULU DEPT OF OCEANOGRAPHY

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

2009-01-01

Pagination or Media Count:

4.0

Abstract:

The subject of the 2007 workshop was Extreme Events. The participants were tasked to review observations of extreme events, identify the physical processes that lead to them, and assess their probability and predictability. Extreme events are characterized by adjectives such as rare, exceptional, surprising, unexpected and catastrophic, and are often defined as rare but influential or events on the tail of a probability distribution. Extreme events occur in natural, technical and societal environments, and their description, understanding and prediction are of great importance. Extreme events may be studied as a statistical problem with emphasis on their frequency of occurrence as a function of magnitude or as a dynamical problem with emphasis on the underlying mechanisms. The workshop brought together researchers from the fields of oceanography, meteorology and statistics to assess whether benefit can be obtained from combining the statistical and dynamical approaches in order to answer important questions such as Do extreme events have special physics that occurs rarely in space and time, Are there dynamical ceilings that limit the magnitude of extreme events and prevent the reliable extrapolation of statistical results, To what extent and how far in advance can extreme events be predicted, either deterministically or statistically, When can we say with confidence that an increase in the occurrence or magnitude of extreme events is due to a shift in the underlying system rather than a statistical fluctuation

Subject Categories:

  • Meteorology
  • Physical and Dynamic Oceanography
  • Statistics and Probability

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE