Accession Number:

ADA522730

Title:

Developing Empirical Lightning Cessation Forecast Guidance for the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center

Descriptive Note:

Journal article

Corporate Author:

FLORIDA STATE UNIV TALLAHASSEE DEPT OF METEOROLOGY

Report Date:

2010-01-01

Pagination or Media Count:

20.0

Abstract:

This research addresses the 45th Weather Squadrons 45WS need for improved guidance regarding lightning cessation at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center KSC. KSCs Lightning Detection and Ranging LDAR network was the primary observational tool to investigate both cloud-to-ground and intracloud lightning. Five statistical and empirical schemes were created from LDAR, sounding, and radar parameters derived from 116 storms. Four of the five schemes were unsuitable for operational use since lightning advisories would be canceled prematurely, leading to safety risks to personnel. These include a correlation and regression tree analysis, three variants of multiple linear regression, event time trending, and the time delay between the greatest height of the maximum dBZ value to the last flash. These schemes failed to adequately forecast the maximum interval, the greatest time between any two flashes in the storm. The majority of storms had a maximum interval less than 10 min, which biased the schemes toward small values. Success was achieved with the percentile method PM by separating the maximum interval into percentiles for the 100 dependent storms.

Subject Categories:

  • Atmospheric Physics

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE