Analyzing International Economic Influence on Iran
ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLL FORT LEAVENWORTH KS SCHOOL OF ADVANCED MILITARY STUDIES
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The interconnectedness of global trade influences international relations. The complexities of this interconnectedness may be better understood through a quantitative analysis of the balance of trade within the global economic system. This monograph serves as a proof-of-concept analytic tool for better understanding the consequences of economic influence in terms of sanctions and other similar macroeconomic regimes. The underlying concept developed is a calculation of economic threat rings describing the propensity and utility of countries to participate in such regimes. In this monograph, the economic threat ring technique is applied to the case of modern day Iran. Iran is used as a case study as it has a long-standing record of sanctions being imposed upon it by the United States and other nations since the 1979 Iranian revolution. Iran continues to be of contemporary interest to U.S. foreign policy makers owing to concerns about its known sponsorship of terrorism and suspected pursuit of nuclear weapons. Based on an analysis of the results, conclusions are drawn with respect to the risk opportunities present to American decision makers in terms of international support and the potential success of economic coercion targeted against Iran. Statistical analysis of publicly available balance of trade data for Iran and its interconnected network of related global trading partners are central to this study.
- Economics and Cost Analysis
- Government and Political Science
- Statistics and Probability