Toward a Mathematical Theory of Counterterrorism (Proteus USA, Volume 1, Issue 2, December 2007)
ARMY WAR COLL CARLISLE BARRACKS PA CENTER FOR STRATEGIC LEADERSHIP
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Wars are composed of battles, so presumably the war on terror is composed-at least in part-of battles against terrorist cells. But how can one tell if those battles have been won One could ask for the annihilation of the opposing side, but surely that is too crude a measure Pariss Troy may have been sacked, but not Petains Paris. One could declare a battle won if the terrorist cell has not conducted an attack, but of course it is the potential for attack that is the chief concern. How can we measure that In the first part of this paper, we will review a mathematical model for answering questions like this. This model has many shortcomings, but also perhaps some uses details and suggestions for possible improvements will be found below. But if one accepts the formalism of the model, with a few additional- and, we trust, reasonable-assumptions, one can ask, What is the structure of the perfect terrorist cell the most robust terrorist cell the cell that is least likely to be disrupted if a certain number of its members have been captured or killed This becomes a precise mathematical question, which we address in the latter part of this paper. Finally we propose additional mathematics problems engendered by our research we hope government investigators, academics, and students will pursue them.
- Theoretical Mathematics
- Unconventional Warfare