Accession Number:

ADA509067

Title:

Analysis of Change in Population Stance on Infrastructure Using a Cultural Geography Model for Stability Operations

Descriptive Note:

Master's thesis

Corporate Author:

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

2009-09-01

Pagination or Media Count:

72.0

Abstract:

Operations in counterinsurgency COIN and stability, security, transition, and reconstruction SSTR require a cultural understanding of the population in which they are conducted. TRAC Monterey has embarked on the development of a stochastic, discrete-event simulation model called the Cultural Geography CG model, intended to aid the decision maker in understanding the effects of his actions on the local population. The simulation model incorporates theories in social science, along with data pertaining to a specific region, to demonstrate how the populations culture will influence their stance on issues relevant to the region. We conduct a preliminary investigation of the capabilities of the CG model. We use techniques in data mining and experimental design to determine the inputs or factors that have a significant effect on the output or results of the model. The methods we employ were able to aid in debugging the infrastructure portion of the CG model, and demonstrate the utility of efficient experimental design in developing and exploring simulations that represent human populations. Ongoing, in-depth explorations of CG and related models will be beneficial as these models are refined, and will help establish the class of questions for which they are suitable.

Subject Categories:

  • Information Science
  • Sociology and Law
  • Operations Research
  • Computer Programming and Software
  • Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE