System Lifecycle Cost Under Uncertainty as a Design Metric Encompassing the Value of Architectural Flexibility
DEFENSE ADVANCED RESEARCH PROJECTS AGENCY ARLINGTON VA
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In this work, we develop an alternative metric and approach for system design and acquisition decisions that encompasses system flexibility called assured system lifecycle cost under uncertainty, or simply stochastic lifecycle cost. We use this metric to compare the overall lifecycle costs of an existing monolithic satellite system to a hypothetical fractionated satellite system that provides the same service. Different approaches to fractionation are investigated. Lifecycle cost calculations are derived in a non-deterministic form using Monte Carlo simulations incorporating launch and component failure uncertainty to produce mean values with associated variances for statistical comparison. We find that the total lifecycle cost of fractionated satellite architectures are comparable to monolithic satellite architectures when the individual satellite design lifetimes are longer and are aligned with individual satellite expected mean mission durations based on component failure reliability.
- Economics and Cost Analysis
- Operations Research
- Unmanned Spacecraft