Open Scenario Study, Phase I. Volume 1. Assessment Overview and Results
INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA
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At the request of the Department of Defense DoD, the Institute for Defense Analyses IDA assessed the national security communitys need for unclassified scenarios and found that a significant demand exists. Furthermore, IDA found that the recurring costs for scenario development are significant but potential options for major cost-savings exist and should be further explored. Scenarios are widespread throughout DoD, and they serve a variety of functions. In recent years, the Department has made significant progress in developing and coordinating a common set of classified scenarios, but it has no similar process for unclassified scenarios. Because of this gap, DoD and its partners have undertaken disparate efforts that have frequently produced incomparable and redundant unclassified scenarios. To examine this situation and develop potential solutions to better address the need for unclassified scenarios, DoD asked IDA to conduct a study of unclassified scenario development and use in the Department and among key DoD partners. The overall study design includes three phases 1 assessment of unclassified scenario needs, 2 development and assessment of alternatives for satisfying these needs, and 3 further development of the selected alternative. This report conveys the results of phase one of the study. Phase One encompassed a multifaceted approach to assess the need for unclassified scenarios among DoD users and their partners. The first step of Phase One included problem definition and scoping through engagement with key stakeholders. An extensive literature review of both DoD and non DoD sources was the seocnd step. The third step involved surveying the national security community to gain insights and perspectives. This was done through an extensive questionnaire and selected interviews.
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