Accession Number:

ADA479445

Title:

Economic Analysis of National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Modernization Alternatives

Descriptive Note:

Final rept. Oct 2006-Nov 2007

Corporate Author:

INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA

Report Date:

2007-11-01

Pagination or Media Count:

98.0

Abstract:

IDA conducted an economic analysis of two NNSA approaches to transforming and modernizing the U.S. nuclear weapons production complex. One approach envisions consolidating all nuclear weapon production functions into a single site called a Consolidated Nuclear Production Center CNPC. The other approach Distributed Centers of Excellence DCE proposes modernizing the current complex in place. The IDA study team estimated the likely investment costs associated with each modernization alternative and the recurring savings that would result from the CNPC versus the DCE approach. We found that the CNPC proposal requires substantially greater investments and the savings are insufficient to justify the extra expenditures. In addition we found no cost basis for moving either pit production or assemblydisassembly from their present locations. We found a positive net present value for moving secondary production from its present location however the break-even point for the investment is at least 30 years away. In addition IDA reviewed the suitability of using the NNSA Nuclear Enterprise model for cost estimating.

Subject Categories:

  • Economics and Cost Analysis
  • Nuclear Weapons

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE