On Stochastic Stability of Regional Ocean Models to Finite-Amplitude Perturbations of Initial Conditions
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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We consider error propagation near an unstable equilibrium state classified as an unstable focus for spatially uncorrelated and correlated finite-amplitude initial perturbations using short- up to several weeks and intermediate up to two months range forecast ensembles produced by a barotropic regional ocean model. An ensemble of initial perturbations is generated by the Latin Hypercube design strategy, and its optimal size is estimated through the Kullback - Liebler distance the relative entropy. Although the ocean model is simple, the prediction error PE demonstrates non-trivial behavior similar to that existing in 3D ocean circulation models. In particular, in the limit of zero horizontal viscosity, the PE at first decays with time for all scales due to dissipation caused by nonlinear bottom friction, and then grows faster than quasi-exponentially. Statistics of a prediction time scale the irreversible predictability time IPT quickly depart from Gaussian the linear predictability regime and becomes Weibullian the non-linear predictability regime as amplitude of initial perturbations grows. A transition from linear to non-linear predictability is clearly detected by the specific behavior of IPT variance. A new analytical formula for the model predictability horizon is introduced and applied to estimate the limit of predictability for the ocean model.
- Physical and Dynamic Oceanography