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A Real-Time Coastal Ocean Prediction Experiment for MREA04
NAVAL RESEARCH LAB STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS OCEANOGRAPHY DIV
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To provide a short-tern ocean forecast for sea level variation, current temperature, and salinity, an ocean nowcastforecast system has been developed The system is an integration of a data-assimilating, dynamical ocean model, a statistical data-analysis model, and various data streams for ocean bathymetry, climatological data, surface forcing, open boundary forcing, and observations. The system assimilates satellite data and in-situ measurements to produced an estimations of the current ocean State or nowcast and is forced with a meteorological forecast to produce an ocean forecast During the MREAO4 sea trial, the system was implemented for a region off the Portuguese coast with two-way nested grids and produced real-time ocean forecasts for the period of the experiment The high density of real-time, in-situ observations during MREAO4 provided a unique opportunity for the system to assimilate the in-Situ observations during MREAO4 provided a unique opportunity for the system to assimilate the in-situ observations in addition to satellite data and to perform a statistically meaningful evaluation of the systems forecast capability The evaluation shows that the nowcastforecast system has good skill in predicting the tide and fair skill in predicting the ocean temperature and salinity, respectively Assimilating in-Situ CTD data produced a better nowcastForecast than assimilating only satellite data The forecast error increases as the forecast time increases, but the forecast error does not increase significantly over the nowcast error, which indicates that the error in the nowcast is the major source of the forecast error.
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE