Indicators of NGO Security in Afghanistan
MILITARY ACADEMY WEST POINT NY COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
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In Afghanistan, development projects play a critical role in the creation of democracy. However, the precarious security environment and large number of attacks on NGO workers stall development efforts. Arguments on NGO security claim that violence against aid workers is the result of US military presence, local warlords, poppy cultivation, differing ethnic groups, and distance of the aid project from Kabul. The author tested these arguments through statistical analysis and key informant interviews. Using the number of security incidents against NGOs during a 14-month period as a dependent variable and each province as a case, the author conducted individual statistical analysis of each argument. No single variable proved to be largely significant. However, when all independent variables and data were combined in a multiple regression, three factors proved to be significant. One, if the province borders Pakistan, it will have a significantly larger level of violence on average. Two, an increase in poppy cultivation correlates to a reduction in violence against NGOs. Three, provinces with a higher percentage of home radios correlate to a higher level of violence against NGOs. Overall, the model accounts for about 54 of the variation in violence rate against NGOs. These results suggest an integrated approach to military security operations and NGO development projects is critical to the success of Afghanistan as a democracy.
- Sociology and Law
- Government and Political Science