Accession Number:

ADA467529

Title:

Forecasting Demand for Civilian Pilots: A Cost Savings Approach to Managing Air Force Pilot Resources

Descriptive Note:

Master's Thesis

Corporate Author:

AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

2007-03-01

Pagination or Media Count:

46.0

Abstract:

The purpose of this research was to create a model that could potentially predict demand for military trained pilots in the airline industry. Specifically, this thesis sought to answer the research question addressing whether or not military trained pilots are currently more in demand or less in demand. The research questions were answered through a comprehensive literature review, collection of data relevant to airline industry growth, and regression analysis. The Aviation Continuation Pay Bonus, offered to all eligible Air Force aviators, has risen from 12,000year to its current value of 25,000year. With shrinking budgets, and ever increasing costs of war, it remains important to implement cost savings measures wherever possible. Airline hiring is one of the most significant factors in an Air Force pilots decision to leave the service. By monitoring airline industry, pilot growth and military pilot retention rates, it is possible to determine the amount of military trained pilots needed in civilian industry. Armed with this information, Air Force official could potentially revise bonus offerings and pilot production rates, ultimately saving the service money. Results of this research show that variables such as the unemployment rate and September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks are significant in predicting airline industry growth. Also, despite current high pilot retention rates in the Air Force, the research model shows a slight increase in demand for military trained pilots from the years 2005 to 2006.

Subject Categories:

  • Civilian Aircraft
  • Economics and Cost Analysis
  • Personnel Management and Labor Relations

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE