Displaying Uncertainty: A Comparison Between Submarine Subject Matter Experts
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
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This study investigates the operational implications of the differences between submarine Target Motion Analysis TMA experts. A submarines use of passive sonar provides uncertain data required to make certain decisions. Bise experiment presents four individual scenarios to three submarine TMA experts CommandingExecutive Officers COXO, Department Heads DH, and Elie Control Technicians ET. Ten individuals from each expert group volunteered from the Groton, CT, and Bangor, WA, submarine bases. A between subject design experiment compared the ranges, range envelopes, time, and over or under estimations of range to the contact generated by each group of experts. After the experiment subjective and objective data were analyzed in order to determine what, if any, differences exist between the three different experts. The results indicate that there was no significant difference between experts. Recommendations address improvements in experiment implementation which can be integrated into future studies as well as the design of improved decision aids.
- Administration and Management
- Target Direction, Range and Position Finding