Improving Analysis: Dealing with Information Processing Errors
AIR FORCE RESEARCH LAB WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH HUMAN EFFECTIVENESS DIRECTORATE
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Intelligence analysts and mental health clinicians have some aspects of their respective crafts in common. In many cases both have to make predictions about future behavior. Findings from the clinical literature were used to make the point that humans, in general, are not particularly skilled at combining various pieces of information in order to make predictions, and by extension, intelligence analysts suffer the same fate. Understanding the problems involved in information processing can help us develop methods and tools to assist in mitigating three broad cognitive errors a the tendency to see patterns where none exist, b the tendency to seek confirmatory evidence, and c the use of preconceived biases.
- Administration and Management
- Information Science
- Medicine and Medical Research