Accession Number:

ADA465169

Title:

Probabilistic Weather Forecasting for Winter Road Maintenance

Descriptive Note:

Technical rept.

Corporate Author:

WASHINGTON UNIV SEATTLE DEPT OF STATISTICS

Report Date:

2007-04-03

Pagination or Media Count:

28.0

Abstract:

Road maintenance is one of the main problems Departments of Transportation face during winter time. Anti-icing, i.e. applying chemicals to the road to prevent ice formation, is often used to keep the roads free of ice. Given the preventive nature of anti-icing, accurate predictions of road ice are needed. Currently, anti-icing decisions are usually based on deterministic weather forecasts. However the costs of the two kinds of error are highly asymmetric because the cost of a road closure due to ice is much greater than that of taking anti-icing measures. As a result, probabilistic forecasts are needed to optimize decisionmaking.

Subject Categories:

  • Meteorology
  • Statistics and Probability
  • Civil Engineering

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE